VanEck Identifies Positive Indicators Amid Bitcoin Market Shift
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Recent analytics from VanEck have revealed signs that may indicate a promising outlook for Bitcoin, even as negative funding rates and a declining hash rate have raised concerns in the market.
The company pointed out that Bitcoin’s onchain data and derivatives metrics suggest a sufficient environment for potential growth. They noted a significant reduction in realized volatility, which dropped from approximately 56% to 41%, attributed to easing geopolitical tensions, particularly between the US and Iran. Concurrently, the 7-day average funding rate has dipped to around -1.8%, marking its lowest status since the onset of 2023 and positioning itself in the 10th percentile of readings since late 2020.
Historically, Bitcoin’s average return over 30 days during periods of negative funding is recorded at 11.5%, a substantial increase compared to the 4.5% average during all time frames. The firm further noted that when annual funding rates fall below -5%, the average subsequent 30-day return escalates to 19.4%, with 180-day returns reaching an impressive 70%. This pattern suggests that negative funding often represents a contrarian buying opportunity.
VanEck’s report highlights that among the top 50 returns over 180 days since 2020, 19 have initiated on days with negative funding, despite those days accounting for merely 13.6% of the total sample.
On the mining front, the hash rate has experienced a decline, with the 30-day moving average reaching the 16th percentile, and the 90-day average dropping to the 9th percentile. Also, mining difficulty levels are now at the 5th and 6th percentiles for those respective time frames. Since December 2025, there have been three notable periods of declining hash rate, the most substantial since China’s mining ban in 2021, with the latest downturn showing a drop of approximately 6.7% as of April 15, 2026.
While history has shown that six out of seven completed drawdowns have resulted in Bitcoin price increases 90 days later, with a median rise of 37.7%, current market sentiment reflects caution rather than panic. Notably, the premium on put options relative to spot volume is currently more than six times higher than levels observed in April 2024, and the active supply over the last 180 days has decreased to 28.4%, indicating that many holders are opting to remain inactive.
In particular, long-term holders, especially those who have been invested for 7 to 10 years and over 10 years, have increased their spending, reaching the 85th and 90th percentiles in the past four years. However, VanEck emphasizes that such activity does not necessarily equate to selling.
In summary, VanEck concludes that the combination of negative funding rates and a declining hash rate contributes to a potentially bullish scenario for Bitcoin, leading to an increasingly optimistic stance from their analysts regarding the cryptocurrency’s future performance.
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Gregory Russell
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