Key US Economic Indicators That May Impact Bitcoin This Week

As Bitcoin remains around $68,600 on February 16, 2026, the upcoming week is crucial for its price dynamics. Following a tumultuous beginning to the year and a substantial decline from its peak of over $126,000 in 2025, the cryptocurrency market’s reaction to US economic data is more significant than ever.

With markets closed Monday due to Presidents’ Day, lower trading volumes could lead to heightened volatility when important economic reports are released later in the week. Key factors influencing the atmosphere include ongoing tariff disputes, persistent inflation levels, and the Federal Reserve’s recent decision to maintain current interest rates.

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Essential Economic Reports for Crypto Investors This Week

Market participants are keenly awaiting four crucial reports: the FOMC minutes from January on Wednesday, initial jobless claims on Thursday, and the revised Q4 GDP figures along with December’s PCE inflation data on Friday.

Information from CME FedWatch indicates that the prevailing market sentiment assigns only a 9.8% chance of a rate cut in March, highlighting skepticism over imminent monetary policy easing.

In this context, even minor fluctuations in the data could sway Bitcoin’s trajectory, either testing the $70,000 resistance or reapproaching the $60,000 support level.

FOMC Minutes

Wednesday’s release of the January FOMC minutes is expected to shape market sentiment for the week. The Fed had opted to keep rates stable at 3.50%–3.75% during its latest meeting, citing caution due to ongoing economic growth and persistently high inflation in the services sector.

These minutes will likely reveal policymakers’ discussions regarding inflation risks, employment strength, and pressures related to tariffs. A hawkish tone could reinforce the expectation of prolonged higher rates, which historically has led to a 3–5% decline in Bitcoin within a day as Treasury yields rise and liquidity tightens. On the contrary, any hints of balanced risk considerations or concerns about economic slowdown could reignite speculation about potential rate cuts.

In a market affected by holiday trading, even slight dovish messages could push Bitcoin toward the $70,000 mark.

Initial Jobless Claims

The jobless claims report set for Thursday will provide a current overview of the labor market, which is critical to the Fed’s dual objectives. Analysts expect around 220,000 initial claims for the week concluding February 14, a decrease from the previous week’s 227,000.

Should the claims fall below 210,000, it could indicate labor market robustness, diminishing the chances of an immediate rate cut, potentially leading Bitcoin to drop by 1–3%. Conversely, if claims exceed 230,000, it might raise worries about a weakening job market, which has previously resulted in increased risk appetite and a possible rise in Bitcoin by 2–4% as expectations for easing take hold.

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With Bitcoin fluctuating between $68,000 and $69,000, this report will serve as a key transition between the Fed’s insights and the upcoming inflation figures.

Final Q4 GDP Revision

Friday will bring the final revision of the Q4 GDP, with expectations for a growth adjustment to +2.5%, a notable decrease from the earlier estimate of +4.4%. If the final figure disappoints, falling below 2.3%, it could reinforce narratives of economic slowdown, possibly lifting Bitcoin by 3–6% as markets anticipate policy relief.

On the other hand, a figure surpassing 2.7% could complicate forecasts, suggesting that robust growth may delay any easing, putting downward pressure on the crypto markets.

PCE and Core PCE Reports

The week’s most significant event will be the release of December’s PCE inflation figures, which serve as the Federal Reserve’s primary gauge for inflation. Projections suggest a month-over-month increase of +0.3% for both headline and core PCE, with annual readings hovering around 2.8% to 2.9%.

A lower-than-expected print of 0.2% MoM would indicate progress in disinflation, potentially boosting the likelihood of a rate cut and sparking a 4–8% rise in Bitcoin, pushing values above $70,000. Conversely, a print exceeding 0.3% would intensify concerns regarding inflation, likely resulting in a 3–5% decline in Bitcoin as yields increase and easing prospects diminish.

With Bitcoin stabilizing near $68,600 and well below past highs, the market remains highly attuned to liquidity indicators. Any dovish surprises could reignite investor interest and propel Bitcoin beyond $70,000, while hawkish data might deepen corrections towards the $60,000 to $65,000 range.