The Rise of Crypto Super-Apps in Online Gambling
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The landscape of online gambling is evolving rapidly as several platforms integrate cryptocurrency functionalities, creating what some are calling super-apps. Kalshi is reportedly gearing up to launch US crypto perpetual futures, while Polymarket has made headlines with its announcement of perpetual contracts, now available for early access sign-ups.
Hyperliquid has also joined the fray by supporting outcome token trading in conjunction with its mainnet-deployed perpetuals. Meanwhile, Pump.fun has transitioned into a social trading platform over recent years, allowing users to explore various coins, follow creators, participate in livestreams, and swap tokens seamlessly within one application.
Across these four platforms, a common strategy emerges: they aim to maintain users within a continuous speculative loop. This approach captures every aspect of users’ risk appetites, ensuring that the cost of exiting their platforms is sufficiently high, which discourages users from seeking alternatives.
In terms of performance, Hyperliquid currently boasts approximately $191 billion in perpetual trading volume over 30 days, alongside $61 million in fees and around $7.35 billion in open interest. In contrast, for event markets, Clear Street anticipates that Kalshi will achieve $96 billion in volumes by 2026, while Polymarket is projected to reach $84 billion. Kalshi’s event flow could potentially generate 64 times the revenue per notional dollar compared to Hyperliquid’s perpetual flows.
As these platforms evolve, the integration of event contracts into perpetual exchanges becomes increasingly appealing. This strategy seeks to attract higher-margin trading flows from existing users, while prediction market platforms that branch into perpetuals add a lucrative ongoing revenue stream.
Moreover, the Financial Times noted in March that short-duration crypto bets on Polymarket and Kalshi were generating about $70 million in daily trading volume, contributing to a significant portion of total activity on these platforms. The dominance of short-duration contracts highlights the trend towards faster, more monetizable transactional processes.
Hyperliquid, which emphasizes permissionless perpetuals and the most extensive on-chain order book, is keen on building an ecosystem that allows developers to create custom perpetual contracts without the need for prior approval. Its testnet also outlines plans for outcome token trading with a fee structure that ensures opening these contracts is inexpensive, yet costly to exit.
Kalshi has carved out a niche with its regulated event contracts, and with recent legal victories, it is poised to introduce crypto perpetual futures that could attract a broader user base. Meanwhile, Polymarket continues to condition its audience for short-duration speculation, further embedding perpetual futures as a regular offering.
Pump.fun completes this evolving picture by offering a comprehensive social trading interface that merges coin creation, follower engagement, livestreams, and token trading within one platform. This functionality encourages users to engage repeatedly without needing to navigate away from the app.
The regulatory landscape surrounding these developments is complex, as it presents a clash between differing legal frameworks. The CFTC has initiated proposals regarding the regulation of prediction markets, and its jurisdictional stance was reinforced by a recent ruling favoring Kalshi. However, states like New York are increasing scrutiny, leading to uncertainty regarding the legality of some of these offerings.
Looking ahead, if the CFTC’s initiatives lead to clear definitions, the development of onshore super-apps could accelerate significantly. Kalshi, Hyperliquid, and Polymarket are all positioned to expand their product offerings, potentially transforming bitcoin into a critical asset across these platforms. However, a successful regulatory crackdown could force significant changes, requiring a careful balancing act for these venues as they navigate the evolving landscape of online gambling and cryptocurrency.
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Raj Patel
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