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El Salvador’s Bitcoin Gamble Faces $300 Million Loss Amid Rising Risks

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Gregory Russell verified
Financial services expert

Financial services expert with over three years of experience monitoring cryptocurrency markets and blockchain innovation. Passionate about digital assets and the decentralized future.

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The ongoing decline of Bitcoin (BTC) has significantly impacted investors, including nations like El Salvador. The country has seen its Bitcoin investments lose substantial value, coinciding with a rise in credit default swaps, which has heightened worries about its debt situation and relationships with international financial institutions.

Data from El Salvador’s Bitcoin Office indicates that the nation currently holds 7,560 BTC, valued at around $503.8 million. This figure marks a steep decline from a peak of approximately $800 million in October 2025, representing a loss close to $300 million over just a few months.

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President Bukele, a strong proponent of cryptocurrency, remains committed to acquiring Bitcoin daily. Although this approach reflects his bullish stance, it also exposes the country to further market fluctuations.

In contrast, Bhutan has recently opted to mitigate its risks by selling off $22.4 million in Bitcoin, signaling a different investment strategy that prioritizes short-term liquidity over long-term accumulation.

Bhutan has reportedly earned over $765 million from its Bitcoin mining endeavors since 2019. However, the costs associated with mining have surged due to the upcoming 2024 Bitcoin halving, leading Bhutan to reassess its holdings, while El Salvador continues to stockpile Bitcoins.

Additionally, to diversify its assets, El Salvador invested $50 million in gold last month as demand for the metal surged amidst ongoing economic uncertainties.

The financial commitments to cryptocurrency have strained El Salvador’s relationship with the International Monetary Fund (IMF). The government’s persistent Bitcoin acquisitions, along with delays in reforming its pension system, have complicated talks regarding critical IMF support.

The IMF has raised concerns about the implications of Bitcoin on the country’s fiscal health. A disruption in their agreement could undermine the support necessary for El Salvador’s recovery from its sovereign debt crisis. Despite this, the country has accomplished a remarkable turnaround, with its bonds yielding over 130% in three years.

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Some analysts have suggested that the IMF might be apprehensive about funds being allocated to Bitcoin purchases, especially given recent market downturns. The IMF had previously approved a 40-month Extended Fund Facility, granting about $1.4 billion, with a portion released after the first review in June 2025.

However, the second review has stalled since September due to delays in publishing important pension system information. During this time, El Salvador has continued to increase its Bitcoin reserves, despite receiving multiple warnings from the IMF.

Another review is on the calendar for March, with future loan disbursements contingent on these assessments.

Concerns about El Salvador’s fiscal health are reflected in the bond market, where credit default swaps have surged to a five-month high, indicating growing investor unease about the country’s ability to meet its obligations. The nation faces $450 million in bond repayments this year, with expectations of nearly $700 million due next year.

El Salvador’s Bitcoin strategy is now interwoven with essential fiscal and IMF discussions, making the outcomes of upcoming reviews and repayment obligations pivotal for maintaining investor trust and the sustainability of its debt management.

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Gregory Russell

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Financial services expert

Financial services expert with over three years of experience monitoring cryptocurrency markets and blockchain innovation. Passionate about digital assets and the decentralized future.

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Gregory Russell
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