Bitcoin’s Price Trends Suggest Bear Market Isn’t Over Yet
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A Senior Altcoin Analyst, Sarah combines on-chain data with a background in venture capital research. With a Master’s in Computer Science, she provides precise evaluations…
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Recent movements in Bitcoin’s price have stirred debate among traders and analysts. With green candlesticks appearing in both daily and weekly charts, the question arises: has the market hit its lowest point, or is there more to come?
A detailed look at Bitcoin’s behavior over the past 13 years complicates the prevailing optimism. An analyst, identified as Xremin, highlights a trend that spans over a decade, indicating that while prices may fluctuate, the timeline for a confirmed market bottom may still be unfolding.
The analysis reveals that historical trends show Bitcoin bear markets taking a significant amount of time to reach a trough. Since 2013, each cycle has varied in terms of severity, but the duration has remained remarkably consistent.
According to Xremin’s technical chart, the bear market in 2024 lasted approximately 426 days, while the cycles from 2017 and the aftermath of the 2021 peak took around 363 and 376 days, respectively. Currently, the ongoing cycle has only been active for about 190 days. This is notably less than half the duration of previous downturns, calculated from Bitcoin’s peak above $126,000 in October 2025.
Bitcoin has already seen a decline of roughly 43% from that all-time high. However, the analyst cautions against prematurely declaring that the market has reached its bottom, as that would imply a break from a 13-year trend without any substantial changes in market structure to support such a claim.
Speculating about the current state of the market leads to questions about whether we are indeed nearing a bottom. If this cycle concludes in less than the time required for any past cycle, it would defy historical norms. Advocates for an early market bottom argue that the current landscape presents unique structural dynamics absent in previous downturns.
For instance, the emergence of US Spot Bitcoin ETFs, which collectively manage about 6.5% of Bitcoin’s market cap, marks a shift compared to historical patterns, with the highest concentrations being 10% back in October 2025. Furthermore, regulatory changes proposed by the Department of Labor could pave the way for cryptocurrencies to be included in retirement plans, indicating a significant structural shift.
While these developments might mitigate future market drops, they primarily address price considerations rather than the necessary timeline for establishing a solid bottom. Although institutional interest could prevent Bitcoin from plummeting to levels like $50,000 or $40,000, it does not expedite the psychological and structural processes that lead to a true market bottom. Based on past trends, a more sustainable bottom may not manifest until late 2026.
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