Bitcoin Could Surge to $11 Million by 2036, Experts Predict

Joe Burnett, who serves as the Vice President of Bitcoin Strategy at Strive (Nasdaq: ASST), posits that Bitcoin could attain a staggering value of $11 million by the first quarter of 2036. This projection hinges not on Bitcoin’s potential to replace traditional financial systems, but rather on its emergence as the leading long-term savings asset in an economy that has been significantly altered by AI-driven deflation and persistent monetary expansion.

In a detailed analysis shared in a Substack post dated March 2, Burnett presents a scenario where Bitcoin’s network value could soar to approximately $230 trillion by 2036. He compares this figure to a global financial asset landscape projected to grow from over $1 quadrillion to nearly $1.97 quadrillion within the next ten years, assuming a 7% annual growth rate. Within this framework, he anticipates Bitcoin could represent about 12% of global financial assets.

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Burnett indicates that this outcome would reflect a rational adjustment of global wealth towards an asset renowned for its absolute scarcity. He notes that Bitcoin’s success does not depend on universal daily use or replacing all currencies; instead, it requires acceptance as the primary long-term savings vehicle in an environment characterized by both technological advancements and monetary expansion.

A key component of Burnett’s thesis is what he refers to as the “AI deflation engine.” He asserts that artificial intelligence will drive down labor costs, enhance productivity, and intensify competition across various sectors, thereby exerting sustained downward pressure on prices. He draws parallels between the present-day shift and the historical transition from horses to automobiles, suggesting that AI is now targeting white-collar jobs, performing tasks previously handled by junior professionals.

Burnett argues that in a neutral monetary environment, this productivity increase would typically lead to higher purchasing power. However, in a debt-driven fiat system, such changes can create instability. He explains that falling wages coupled with diminishing asset prices can destabilize the economy. Central banks and fiscal authorities, in response to the threat of deflation, tend to expand liquidity to avert a downward spiral. The more effective AI becomes at cutting costs, the more aggressive the monetary policy response is likely to be.

This trend creates a linkage to Bitcoin. Burnett contends that periods of deflation typically start with a shift towards cash and sovereign bonds, but eventually transition into rate cuts and fiscal stimulus. He cites previous downturns, including those in 1987, 2001, 2008, 2020, and 2022, as evidence that policymakers are unable to tolerate prolonged deflation. Over time, he believes this combination of productivity deflation and monetary expansion will lead capital to seek out assets with a supply that cannot be manipulated.

As Burnett expands on his argument, he expresses concerns about equities facing greater vulnerability to AI’s disruptive potential. While real estate has intrinsic scarcity, technology could streamline production processes, thereby limiting long-term gains. Sovereign bonds may provide nominal stability, but they are tied to currencies that face ongoing dilution. In contrast, Burnett posits that Bitcoin’s capped supply, easy divisibility, portability, and verifiability position it uniquely to absorb growing global liquidity.

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Additionally, he introduces the concept of “Digital Credit,” which involves income-generating securities that are backed by substantial Bitcoin reserves. Examples of publicly traded instruments, such as STRC and SATA, are mentioned as vehicles that generate income for credit investors while facilitating further Bitcoin accumulation. This dynamic could potentially create a feedback loop between global yield demands and Bitcoin purchases.

To support his arguments, Burnett emphasizes the concept of scarcity. He notes that less than 41,000 new Bitcoin will be issued throughout the entirety of 2036. Should global financial assets reach nearly $2 quadrillion and even a mere 1% of new capital formation aim at preserving value in Bitcoin, this would translate into $1.4 trillion competing for the limited supply—equating to approximately $34 million in demand for each newly created coin.

While acknowledging that the journey to such price levels will not be linear, Burnett asserts that Bitcoin’s ascent towards eight-figure valuations will be driven by fundamental monetary dynamics rather than mere speculation. He concludes that as liquidity expands in a world shaped by technological deflation, capital is likely to concentrate in assets capable of retaining value over time. Whether or not this shift aligns with his $11 million forecast, Burnett’s analysis clarifies the potential role of Bitcoin as a pivotal asset in a future marked by AI-driven abundance and ongoing liquidity expansion.

As of the latest update, Bitcoin is valued at $66,958.