Bitcoin’s Future: When Will Prices Hit Rock Bottom?
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James Mitchell combines investment banking with cryptocurrency journalism to analyze the institutional adoption of digital assets. Specializing in ETFs and regulation, he translates complex developments…
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Amid the backdrop of the ongoing US-Iran conflict, Bitcoin (BTC) has shown remarkable strength, appreciating over 12% since the end of February. As the global financial landscape remains uncertain, investors are keenly interested in whether Bitcoin has reached its lowest point or if further declines lie ahead.
Benjamin Cowen, the CEO of Into The Cryptoverse and a former NASA researcher, recently shared his insights on Bitcoin’s trajectory in a discussion. He highlighted that Bitcoin’s historical price patterns suggest the cryptocurrency could experience typical fluctuations as it moves through its current cycle.
Cowen pointed out the consistent timing of Bitcoin’s cycles. He explained that, historically, the cryptocurrency has hit its peaks about a week after similar past cycles. Evaluating this pattern, he anticipates that the market might see a bottom around one year post-peak.
In Cowen’s view, the most likely scenario for the pricing bottom would occur around October 2026, aligning with the trends observed in earlier cycles. He also entertained the possibility that Bitcoin could reach its lowest point sooner, potentially as soon as May of this year. However, he emphasized that this would require an unprecedented capitulation event, which would be significantly lower than the usual downturns typically seen during midterm years.
Market analysts, including Joao Wedson, CEO of Alphractal, seem to support Cowen’s outlook. Wedson noted that Bitcoin achieved its peak 534 days after the halving in April 2024, marking a shorter cycle than previous ones. His assessment suggests a market bottom could occur between 912 to 922 days post-halving, pointing towards late September or October 2026.
CryptoQuant’s models echo these projections, estimating a potential bottom between June and December of 2026, with September to November standing out as the most likely window for the downturn.
Interestingly, Cowen reflected on the unique dynamics of this cycle, observing that Bitcoin’s peak happened under markedly different circumstances compared to previous cycles. Unlike the peaks of 2017 and 2021, which were characterized by widespread enthusiasm among retail investors, the current peak was achieved during a period of apathy towards cryptocurrencies. This lack of enthusiasm has meant that the typical rotation towards altcoins following a Bitcoin peak has not materialized.
Cowen remarked that this cycle’s peak, defined by apathy rather than excitement, mirrors what occurred in 2019 when Bitcoin also reached a high during a period of low social interest. He commented that such a context can lead to a different market behavior, lacking the subsequent altcoin investment that typically follows.
In conclusion, Cowen maintains that the four-year cycle principle is still in play. Currently, Bitcoin is trading at around $73,831, remaining over 40% below its October 2025 all-time high of roughly $126,000. If his predictions hold true, Bitcoin might still have some way to go before finding a floor in this ongoing cycle.
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