Bitcoin Plunge Predicted Below $4,000 by Leading Trader
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James Mitchell combines investment banking with cryptocurrency journalism to analyze the institutional adoption of digital assets. Specializing in ETFs and regulation, he translates complex developments…
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Renowned trader Tony Severino, who accurately forecasted Bitcoin’s former peak, has introduced the alarming possibility of a decline to $4,000. This prediction emerges as Bitcoin continues to face challenges in surpassing pivotal resistance levels, indicating a potential deeper drop may be on the horizon.
In a recent post on X, Severino expressed concerns that the forthcoming Bitcoin bull market could merely represent a lower high, subsequently leading to an even lower low. He presented a chart suggesting that Bitcoin might be developing a Head-and-Shoulder pattern, which could trigger a downward movement to the $4,000 mark. As a result, he advised traders to navigate within the current market cycles and ranges.
When discussing what a potential bottom for Bitcoin could look like during this bear market, Severino remarked that this speculation is complicated, as the concept of a bottom can shift over time. Nevertheless, he pointed out that Bitcoin appears to be nearing a bottom on shorter timeframes, while on longer timeframes, it may still take a considerable amount of time before establishing a solid floor.
Severino recently predicted that Bitcoin might experience a maximum drawdown of approximately 72% during this market cycle, suggesting a potential bottom closer to $34,000. Another experienced trader, Peter Brandt, has also indicated that Bitcoin could fall as low as $40,000 before finding its bottom. The ongoing struggle for Bitcoin, particularly following a recent increase to $70,000, highlights its vulnerability to further declines.
On-chain analytics platform Glassnode mentioned in a recent post that profit-taking behavior continues to hinder momentum at the $70,000 level. They noted that this trend aligns with a situation characterized by limited liquidity, where even small realization events can significantly impede recovery efforts.
Another crypto analyst, Willy Woo, pointed out that Bitcoin has only experienced a prolonged upward trend during a global macro bull market from 2009 to 2026. He cautioned that, should global macroeconomic conditions falter, support at the $30,000 level could be tested. Woo identified $16,000 as the critical threshold needed to sustain Bitcoin’s bullish trajectory.
Woo also suggested that a typical bear-market bottom for Bitcoin might hover around $45,000. He observed that the ongoing selling pressure from investors seems to be waning, potentially allowing for a period of sideways consolidation that could push prices back into the mid $70,000 range. However, this rebound would likely face resistance.
He noted the broader market conditions remain bearish, with both spot and futures liquidity declining. As for timing, Woo anticipates that the end of the bearish trend could materialize in Q4, with bullish momentum possibly resuming in the first or second quarter of 2027.
Currently, Bitcoin is trading at roughly $67,800, reflecting a downward trend over the past 24 hours, based on information from CoinMarketCap.
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