2024 Bitcoin Cycle Shows Significant Weakness Compared to Past Trends
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A Senior Altcoin Analyst, Sarah combines on-chain data with a background in venture capital research. With a Master’s in Computer Science, she provides precise evaluations…
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In a striking assessment of the current Bitcoin market cycle, the head of research at Galaxy, Alex Thorn, noted that it is markedly weaker than the previous three cycles. This evaluation highlights ongoing shifts in Bitcoin’s behavior following the April 2024 halving event.
Thorn scrutinized the price movements since the halving, emphasizing that this cycle has experienced notably reduced volatility and a limited upside. He pointed out that the all-time high of just over $125,000 on October 5, 2025, is only 97% higher than the pre-halving price of approximately $63,000.
To contextualize, previous halving cycles showcased significant price surges: the 2012 cycle saw an increase of about 9,294%, hitting a peak around $1,163. The 2016 cycle resulted in a roughly 2,950% rise to about $19,891, while the 2020 cycle culminated in a 761% increase.
During his analysis, Thorn stated that the current cycle’s underperformance raises questions about whether the trends observed are indicative of a lasting change or merely a temporary phase. He compared the current cycle to earlier periods, noting a concerning trend of diminishing volatility.
The 30-day Bitcoin Volatility Index, which soared to 9.64% on April 2, 2020, has not surpassed 3.11% in this latest cycle, with the most recent figure recorded at a mere 1.75%. This reduction suggests that external factors may increasingly dictate Bitcoin’s pricing rather than the established halving events or usual market cycles.
Critics of Thorn’s view pointed to the fact that Bitcoin reached a record high exceeding $70,000 in March 2024, just before the halving, primarily driven by the approval of spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) in the United States that January. This occurrence, they argue, skews the current cycle’s performance metrics.
Additionally, the intensity of Bitcoin’s downturns appears to have lessened. Historical data shows that previous bear market phases resulted in declines of 80% to 90%. In contrast, the fall from the recent peak of over $125,000 to around $60,000 constitutes a decrease of slightly more than 50%, suggesting a more resilient market.
Looking ahead, industry leaders such as Jan van Eck, CEO of VanEck, forecast a potential bottoming out, predicting a gradual price recovery starting in 2026. Presently, Bitcoin’s value rests around $74,703, showing a nearly 5% increase over the past week.
The assessment of Bitcoin’s performance in the context of market cycles is critical. As analysts observe this ongoing evolution, it remains to be seen how the cryptocurrency will adjust to these changing conditions.
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