Standard Chartered Warns of Bitcoin’s Potential Drop to $50K

Recent trends indicate that Bitcoin is facing significant challenges, with its price falling approximately 1.2% in the past day, hovering around $66,000. Despite occasional short-term recoveries, the overall market structure appears to be weakening.

Concerns have emerged from major financial institutions regarding their Bitcoin projections. Current on-chain metrics and insights from long-term holders suggest that there may still be further declines ahead.

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Standard Chartered recently revised its Bitcoin forecast, indicating that the cryptocurrency could plunge down to $50,000 before any stable recovery occurs. The bank highlighted diminishing institutional interest and weakened demand for ETFs as primary factors contributing to this outlook, aligning their predictions with observable market trends.

The bank’s recent adjustments included lowering its forecast for Bitcoin’s value by the end of 2026 from $150,000 to $100,000, marking its second such revision within three months. This cautious stand stems from observed outflows from ETFs and broader economic uncertainties.

Bitcoin’s recent graph patterns indicate a breakdown from a bear flag, which typically emerges after a significant price drop, followed by a consolidation before resuming a downward trend. This suggests persistent selling pressure, even amidst brief recoveries.

Institutional investment indicators are also showing concerning trends. The Chaikin Money Flow (CMF), a key metric that gauges the influx and outflow of significant capital in the market, has notably declined, indicating weaker momentum compared to earlier periods of correction.

Currently, Bitcoin has retraced nearly 38% from its peak, with CMF showing an even steeper drop than observed during the January-April 2025 downturn when Bitcoin suffered a significant decline.

Furthermore, examining historical data reveals that during the peak of Bitcoin’s value in mid-2025, the CMF only briefly dipped below the zero mark, whereas the current scenario presents a more troubling picture.

Standard Chartered’s cautious stance is bolstered by the technical patterns on the price charts and declining ETF-linked activity, pointing to a similar narrative. However, institutional weakness adds another layer of concern.

On-chain metrics convey that investor sentiment remains precarious. A notable metric, the Net Unrealized Profit and Loss (NUPL), assesses the profitability of holders by comparing current market prices to the points when coins last moved.

During Bitcoin’s recovery in April 2024, NUPL was close to 0.42, indicating minimal unrealized profits. As of now, it has significantly fallen, sitting around 0.17, highlighting that the majority of the profits from the last bull run have been depleted. This does not confirm that a market bottom has been reached.

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The historical trajectory of NUPL suggests the potential for further decline. For instance, it plunged to about 0.02 in March 2023 when Bitcoin was valued near $20,000, a period that preceded significant recovery. Current NUPL levels, in contrast, remain relatively high, implying that the market may not yet be fully purged.

Additionally, the behavior of long-term holders—those possessing Bitcoin for over a year—further underscores the situation. These investors typically buy during market lows and help stabilize prices. Presently, they are net sellers, having offloaded over 170,000 BTC in early February 2025, with outflows peaking close to 245,000 BTC by February 2026. This distribution is more pronounced than during the previous correction phase.

In earlier market conditions, long-term holders began accumulating prior to price recoveries, a trend that is currently absent. Therefore, with institutions exercising caution, profits diminishing, and long-term holders not re-entering, a robust rebound seems unlikely in the near future.

As the market dynamics shift, the price levels of Bitcoin are now critical. The current bear flag projections suggest a significant support area between $53,200 and $48,300, corresponding with key Fibonacci retracement levels.

The central point of this range is near the psychologically significant $50,000 mark, which often attracts substantial trading activity. This is why Standard Chartered’s emphasis on the $50,000 target resonates well with the technical analysis—it is not merely arbitrary but strategically situated within a crucial support zone.

Should the downward trend persist and ETF inflows remain subdued, it’s plausible for Bitcoin to test this critical region in the forthcoming months. In a more severe downturn, sustained selling could drive the price down to around $42,400, aligning with long-term breakdown forecasts and historical support.

To alter the current bearish outlook, Bitcoin would need to reclaim and maintain levels above $72,100, supported by strong volumes and fresh institutional investments, indicating a revival of demand. Presently, there is no evidence signifying such a turnaround.