Potential Signals for Altcoins: Are We Entering Alt Season?
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A Senior Altcoin Analyst, Sarah combines on-chain data with a background in venture capital research. With a Master’s in Computer Science, she provides precise evaluations…
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Recent trends in the cryptocurrency market have sparked discussions about the future of altcoins, particularly following observations by analyst Ash Crypto regarding the ALT/BTC trading pair. This pairing has shown a notable shift with four consecutive green MACD bars appearing on its monthly chart, a phenomenon not witnessed in nearly six years.
Historically, such a pattern has led to altcoins outperforming Bitcoin by as much as 60% within three months. The last occurrence was in August 2020, just before a significant altcoin surge where investment shifted from Bitcoin to smaller cryptocurrencies.
In a detailed analysis shared on social media platform X, Ash Crypto highlighted three critical macroeconomic developments that could bode well for altcoin enthusiasts. For the past four years, following the bear market of 2022, the ALT/BTC chart showed persistent signs of being undervalued. This sustained underperformance was perceived as a sign that altcoins were failing to recover while Bitcoin dominated the market.
The first influential factor is the MACD indication itself, which tracks shifting momentum by comparing two price moving averages. Ash Crypto pointed out that the current reading is the most promising since the August 2020 rally.
Next, the ISM Manufacturing PMI has shown positive momentum, rising above 52 for three consecutive months. This metric has historically been significant; readings above 55 have coincided with previous alt seasons in 2017 and 2021.
Additionally, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) for the U.S. has recently reached a five-year low, reducing pressure on the Federal Reserve to impose strict monetary policies. This economic backdrop is seen as beneficial for riskier assets, including altcoins.
Despite these promising signals, Ash Crypto cautioned against prematurely declaring the start of an altcoin season. For that to occur, several conditions must be met: the ISM must exceed 55, liquidity should expand broadly, and a noticeable decrease in Bitcoin’s market dominance is necessary.
They suggested that a recovery period of two to three months is plausible if Bitcoin maintains a trading value above $76,000 and Ethereum climbs between $2,800 and $3,200. However, geopolitical factors could complicate these trends. Shortly after issuing their analysis, Ash Crypto noted the potential impact of an upcoming address by U.S. President Donald Trump on Middle East tensions.
With Trump poised to take a hard stance against Iran, the crypto market reacted negatively, with Bitcoin dropping below $67,000 and Ethereum falling under $2,100. This led to a roughly 3% reduction in total market capitalization.
Additionally, data from recent studies revealed that over 40% of altcoins are trading at or near their all-time lows, a stark contrast to conditions seen during the bear market of 2022.
Analysts from XWIN Research Japan also issued a cautious outlook for major altcoins such as Ethereum, XRP, Solana, and BNB. Their findings indicated that only seven tokens in the market experienced positive returns in the first quarter of 2026, signaling a challenging environment for altcoin investment.
The evolving dynamics in the cryptocurrency market underscore the volatility and uncertainty that continue to define this space. As conditions develop, investors will be watching closely to gauge whether these signals will indeed lead to an altcoin season or further challenges ahead.
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