Indicators Suggest Bitcoin’s Bear Market May Be Just Beginning

This year, Bitcoin (BTC) has nosedived by 23.4%, compounded by a further decrease of over 6% in 2025, with its current trading price at $67,214.

As market participants grapple with the ongoing downturn, a pressing concern lingers: how long will this bearish trend persist? Certain indicators imply that Bitcoin might still be navigating the initial phases of a bear market, hinting at the potential for further declines.

TRUSTED PARTNER

5.0 ★★★★★

Review and Opinions →

🔥 Bonus 2.400 $

Bonus Instant + 150 FS 🏆

Open an account

One critical sign of bearish sentiment lies in the movement of investor capital. Recent data from CryptoQuant highlights a notable decline in new investor inflows, suggesting that the current sell-off is not being counterbalanced by incoming capital. An analyst pointed out that in thriving markets, fresh investments typically surge even during price corrections, as buyers seize the opportunity. Conversely, the early stages of a bear market frequently witness capital withdrawal, further exacerbating the downturn.

According to the analyst, indicators show a pattern reminiscent of past market transitions following all-time highs, where new buyers exit the scene, resulting in price movements driven by internal rotations rather than net new investments. Without an influx of fresh capital, any upward movements may only represent temporary fixes, consistent with the behavior seen in nascent bear markets marked by diminishing liquidity and reduced engagement.

From a technical perspective, expert Jelle has drawn attention to historical cycles to assess the risks presently facing Bitcoin. He noted that in previous major downturns, Bitcoin’s price tended to bottom out below the 0.618 Fibonacci retracement level, measured from the last peak. Historical evidence shows that earlier cycles witnessed declines well beyond this level, with a notable instance where Bitcoin fell around 64% below it. Recent patterns indicate shallower retracements, with the last bear market bottom resting approximately 45% beneath this threshold.

Jelle mentioned that the current high’s 0.618 retracement stands at $57,000, suggesting that if Bitcoin were to find a bottom around 30% under this mark, it could hover around $42,000. This analysis hints at the possibility of further downward pressure, with various analysts previously forecasting a potential bottom even lower than $40,000.

Additionally, the Bull-Bear Market Cycle Indicator provides further context, showing that bearish conditions have been in play since October 2025. However, this indicator has not yet reached levels typically associated with a severe bear market. Past cycles have seen this metric dip into lower zones, indicating that more declines could still lie ahead.

TRUSTED PARTNER

4.4 ★★★★☆

Review and Opinions →

🔥 100% Up to 500 $

200 Spin + 1 Bonus 🏆

Open an account

Meanwhile, on-chain data reveals that Bitcoin whales have been accumulating during the recent price downturn, as evidenced by rising exchange outflows, now averaging 3.2% over the last 30 days. This trend mirrors the accumulation patterns observed in early 2022, when whales actively bought into the market.

Although this accumulation is often seen as a positive sign, historical trends suggest caution. In the prior cycle, a significant market recovery did not take place until early 2023, indicating that while strategic buying is occurring, it does not guarantee an immediate price rebound. This dynamic suggests the potential for continued market pressure in the short term, despite long-term holders increasing their positions.

Additional analysis from Kaiko suggests that Bitcoin may still be following its established four-year cycle, forecasting that the market should currently be around the 30% mark in terms of the cycle’s progression.

Collectively, these four indicators point to a persistent bearish environment for Bitcoin. However, predictions about when this phase will conclude diverge among analysts. Ray Youssef, the CEO of NoOnes, expressed skepticism about a swift recovery for Bitcoin before the summer of 2026, while Julio Moreno of CryptoQuant anticipates the bearish phase might continue into Q3 2026. In contrast, Bitwise’s CIO, Matt Hougan, has a more hopeful outlook, suggesting that the end of the current crypto winter may soon be in sight.