Bitcoin’s Chart Patterns Signal Potential Price Downturn
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Recent analysis of Bitcoin’s weekly performance raises concerns, as it resembles a notorious sell-off from 2022. Some analysts warn that the cryptocurrency might still face challenges ahead.
Current price trends are being juxtaposed with a macro fractal from the past that saw Bitcoin plummet from an all-time high of $69,000 to lows around $15,500. This historical comparison suggests that the ongoing cycle may experience a similarly significant drop.
Crypto analyst philarekt recently issued a cautionary note on social media, highlighting what he considers a troubling macro fractal taking shape in Bitcoin’s pricing structure. He emphasizes a two-part analysis comparing weekly charts from two different cycles: one from 2021 to 2023 and the other from the current period.
The earlier chart showcased Bitcoin achieving a peak of over $69,000, before establishing a pattern characterized by three distinct lower highs within a descending channel. This sequence led to a final stage where the cryptocurrency experienced a 34% decline leading to an unexpected cycle low.
In contrast, the current chart, projecting a peak of $126,000 by October 2025, reveals almost identical structural patterns. Both the 2022 and projected 2026 charts highlight Bitcoin’s struggle against a slanted resistance while descending within a narrow channel. Each attempted rebound has failed to generate significant upward movement, resulting in a series of declining lows.
The weekly Relative Strength Index (RSI), a tool for assessing momentum, appears to mimic the trends seen in 2022. Additionally, a notable death cross has been observed on the price chart, indicating potential bearish momentum. This occurs when the short-term moving average drops below the long-term average.
This specific death cross was identified in early March when the 50-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) fell below the 200-day SMA. A similar event in 2022 took place after Bitcoin had already experienced a 58% downturn, and it subsequently saw an additional 46% decrease before stabilizing.
If the current pattern continues as expected, Bitcoin may approach a final capitulation phase, potentially dropping into the $40,000 to $50,000 range. At present, Bitcoin values are around $72,756, reflecting a 1.7% rise in the last day. Applying the 2022 blueprint implies that a 34% drop from the current valuation could lead Bitcoin into the predicted range.
Despite these bearish indicators, there may be a silver lining. The fractal suggesting a downturn also indicates a transition phase towards accumulation, which historically lays the groundwork for future bullish trends.
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