Expert Analyst Anticipates Bitcoin’s Next Low After Rally
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After a challenging March, Bitcoin has seen a resurgence in April, even surpassing the $79,000 mark for a brief period. Yet, skepticism looms among some analysts, who view this upturn as merely a temporary lift in a downtrend, rather than a genuine recovery.
One notable voice in this discussion is an analyst who previously forecasted Bitcoin’s peak for July 2025. This expert is now shifting focus to the potential decline and estimating how low Bitcoin prices could go before reaching a true bottom.
Using a model that successfully predicted the peak price, the analyst known as Killa is now applying the same methodology to forecast Bitcoin’s downside potential. Back in June 2025, Killa anticipated a price peak of $121,362, which was impressively close to the eventual all-time high of $126,100 reached in October 2025. With this historical performance in mind, Killa has directed attention to the forthcoming low.
The analyst’s approach relies on the observation that each Bitcoin market cycle tends to exhibit a diminishing high-to-bottom price multiple compared to previous cycles. Historical data from five cycles illustrates this trend, with multiples declining from 15.50x in earlier phases to 4.47x, which marked the peak of $69,800 before a drop to $15,600.
Based on this trend of reducing multiples, Killa forecasts the current cycle’s multiple to be around 3.25x. By applying this ratio to the previous cycle’s peak of $126,100, a target bottom of approximately $38,800 emerges. To refine this estimate, the analyst has introduced two optimistic scenarios, projecting potential bottoms at $40,740 and $42,680. Even under these more hopeful predictions, Bitcoin would remain significantly below the $60,000 mark, which some investors consider to be a crucial threshold.
Currently trading at $78,015, for Bitcoin to touch the highest figure of $42,680, it would mean a decline of around 45%. A drop to the anticipated bottom of $38,800 signifies nearly a 50% plunge from its current valuation.
Supporting Killa’s forecast is another analyst, CryptoBullet, who analyzes Bitcoin’s price patterns from a symmetry perspective. CryptoBullet describes the ongoing cycle as a five-wave Elliott Wave structure that began in late 2022, culminating at the $126,000 peak in October 2025. The analysis suggests a corrective phase, indicated as W-X-Y, that might force Bitcoin’s price down to between $45,000 and $50,000.
CryptoBullet posits that the substantial growth observed over three years, from the November 2022 bottom to the peak in 2025, cannot be rectified in less than a year of downturn. This suggests that the current bearish trend could extend well into late 2026 before a definitive bottom is established.
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