Analysts Warn Bitcoin Bull Market Not Yet Confirmed
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A Senior Altcoin Analyst, Sarah combines on-chain data with a background in venture capital research. With a Master’s in Computer Science, she provides precise evaluations…
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Current market indicators suggest that the anticipated Bitcoin bull market may not materialize just yet, according to recent insights from analysts.
Bitcoin’s recent peak at over $76,000 has raised expectations, yet experts from Glassnode indicate that the data illustrates an emerging bull run could be premature. The market shows continued signs of weak inflows, resulting in a stagnant growth rate for Bitcoin across the initial trading days of 2026.
Analysis reveals that Bitcoin dropped below its profitability threshold at the end of January, where it has remained for the last 75 days, placing many active holders at a loss. The downturn has seen a peak drawdown of 20%, and the current deficit sits at around 5% from the entry point.
Utilizing the true market mean (TMM) metric, Glassnode analysts calculate the average cost basis for active Bitcoin investors. This calculation filters out inactive coins, thereby providing a clearer picture of market dynamics. To regain profitability, the price needs to rise above the TMM level, which is currently pegged at approximately $78,013.
Historical patterns indicate that this phenomenon has occurred before. The analyst referenced similar situations since 2016, with durations of downward trends varying significantly. Some scenarios have lasted for mere days, while others extended over several months. The analyst remarked that 75 days is still an early stage in these cycles, pointing out that previous downturns did not reach their lows until five to nine months later.
In further analysis, researcher Axel Adler Jr. highlighted a consistent outflow of capital from the Bitcoin market. The 365-day growth trend related to market capitalization has remained negative throughout 2026, underscoring the lack of sufficient new investment to drive prices higher.
Furthermore, the realized cap has seen a slight decline, dropping from approximately $1.12 trillion to $1.08 trillion since the year’s start, representing a 3.23% decrease. Adler Jr. cautioned that while recent improvements may indicate reduced outflows, they do not yet signal a bullish trend. A significant market shift would require sustained positive movement in both outflow and inflow metrics.
This analysis emphasizes the current uncertainty surrounding Bitcoin’s market dynamics and reinforces the importance of cautious optimism among investors as they navigate these turbulent waters.
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