XRP Price Outlook: Three Key Scenarios Amid CLARITY Act Progress
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A recent analysis by market expert Sam Daodu presents three scenarios that could significantly influence XRP’s price dynamics this month, focusing on the implications of the CLARITY Act, a pivotal piece of legislation concerning the U.S. cryptocurrency landscape.
Daodu anticipates some resolution regarding the bill will emerge within the last two weeks of April. He believes that the upcoming days are crucial, determining whether XRP remains in its current consolidation phase or breaks free from its existing trading range.
The month of April stands out as particularly critical. The Banking Committee has a tight timeframe to arrange a CLARITY Act vote before the Senate’s attention shifts toward midterm elections. Daodu emphasizes that resolving the significant hurdles before this date is essential to maintain momentum.
Throughout much of 2026, XRP has largely fluctuated between $1.28 and $1.45. Daodu argues that developments this month may either confine the cryptocurrency within this range for the foreseeable future or initiate a new, more defined trend.
To illustrate the potential market movements, Daodu outlines three distinct scenarios that hinge on events anticipated during the next two weeks.
The optimistic scenario involves the Banking Committee proceeding with the markup for the CLARITY Act before May. Daodu suggests that simply setting a markup date could elevate XRP’s price even prior to an actual vote. If the legislation passes, he estimates that XRP-related exchange-traded fund (ETF) investments might increase by an additional $4 to $8 billion, building on the existing $1.2 billion already garnered by current spot ETFs—this would occur prior to the act officially becoming law.
In this context, the initial technical hurdle would be the $1.45 resistance level. Daodu notes that around 60% of XRP’s circulating supply was acquired at this price point, forming a “break-even” wall of holders likely to respond. If XRP surpasses this threshold, he identifies $1.60 as the subsequent target.
In contrast, the more neutral scenario would see the SEC’s discussions progress without scheduling a markup date for the bill. In this case, Daodu predicts XRP will likely remain trapped within the same range as it has for much of the year. He observes that the April 16 roundtable discussions might provide a temporary uplift, but without a firm markup date, sustained momentum above $1.40 seems unlikely. As a result, he expects XRP to close April in the $1.30 to $1.40 range, a modest gain compared to March’s $1.33 close, yet not indicative of a significant trend shift.
The bearish outlook emerges if the markup does not materialize before May, with market sentiment potentially deeming the delay as indicative of failure. Daodu warns that external pressures could also exacerbate the situation, particularly as the ceasefire is set to expire on April 22, coupled with faltering talks in Islamabad. If tensions escalate further and oil prices rise above $110, XRP may breach its support level of $1.28, potentially dropping towards $1.15.
At the moment, XRP is trading at approximately $1.33. Should this adverse scenario unfold, it may signify a further 13% decline for the cryptocurrency. The industry remains in suspense as it awaits confirmation regarding this crucial regulatory development.
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