XRP Shows Signs of Reversal After Maintaining Key Support
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Indicators both technical and on-chain are suggesting that XRP may be poised for a shift in its price trajectory as it stabilizes at a crucial support level.
The altcoin has experienced a downturn lasting eight months, with current momentum and on-chain metrics reflecting conditions that have previously marked significant price bottoms. The relative strength index (RSI) for the XRP/BTC ratio now sits at 24, indicating an oversold condition not witnessed since October 2025.
Historically, such low readings on the RSI have led to substantial price rallies for XRP, with movements ranging from 65% to a staggering 345% against Bitcoin during previous recoveries in late 2024 and into 2025.
Traders observe that the XRP/BTC pair is currently trading within a long-established consolidation range, which has often served as a robust launch point for prices. The last significant rebound for XRP against Bitcoin occurred in June 2025, resulting in a 61% rise in the XRP/BTC ratio, which was accompanied by a remarkable 92% surge in XRP’s price to a peak of $3.66.
Further supporting the notion that XRP might be nearing a bottom, the MVRV Z-score for the cryptocurrency is hovering around zero. This historical level typically coincides with accumulation phases and market bottoms, suggesting that current holders are close to their breakeven point, which may reduce selling pressure.
Past experiences from 2021, 2022, and 2024 showed similar patterns before notable upward trends, indicating that the current low MVRV Z-score might signal potential for future price increases.
The last occasion XRP’s MVRV Z-score fell to comparable levels near the end of 2024 was associated with a significant market rebound, leading to a 500% increase in XRP’s value, exceeding $3.
For XRP to maintain a positive outlook, it is essential for the price to hold above the support range of $1.25 to $1.30. Traders indicate that since early February 2026, this major support zone has been sustained.
One trader expressed that should the current support level remain intact, a short-term rebound towards $1.45 is a plausible outcome.
The cost basis distribution also underscores the importance of this support level, revealing that approximately 1.73 billion XRP were purchased in this price range. If XRP dips below this threshold, the next support target is around $1.15, where the 200-week simple moving average lies.
A decline past this level would open the door for considerable turmoil, with the potential to plunge towards a target of $0.80, marking a 41% drop from current figures.
As analysts continue to monitor movements, confirming the resilience of XRP within the $1.27 to $1.30 range would bolster the confidence of bullish traders, who would aim to drive XRP towards the higher end of the $1.61 range to regain market momentum.
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Gregory Russell
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