Traders Predict 53% Chance of Bitcoin Below $66K by April 24
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As the cryptocurrency market grapples with turbulence, Bitcoin’s value has taken a notable downturn. On Friday, Bitcoin dropped to $65,530, marking an 8% decline from the previous day’s peak of $71,300. This significant drop has been attributed to growing concerns regarding the US economy and escalating tensions in the ongoing conflict in Iran, which have adversely impacted both stock and crypto markets.
The bearish sentiment among traders is palpable, with many expressing skepticism about Bitcoin’s ability to maintain the critical $66,000 threshold. Recent developments, including the departure of David Sacks from his role overseeing cryptocurrency policy, have compounded these doubts. Sacks, who previously raised expectations for Bitcoin investments, hinted at potential federal acquisition of Bitcoin without increasing taxes, but his exit has left a vacuum in investor confidence.
Currently, traders are estimating a 53% likelihood that Bitcoin will trade below $66,000 by April 24. The options market reflects this mood, with put options for Bitcoin at this price level trading at 0.0566 BTC, which equates to approximately $3,730. The prevailing sentiment is one of caution, driven by external economic pressures and geopolitical uncertainties.
Factors contributing to this negativity include rising oil prices and speculation regarding increased military expenditures in the US, leading to higher yields on government bonds. These developments have pressured stock markets, with the S&P 500 recently dipping to its lowest levels since September 2025. Additionally, the recent spike in West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil prices to $100 per barrel has only exacerbated fears of inflation.
Against this backdrop, the performance of Bitcoin has trailed the S&P 500 by 20% this year. Investors are increasingly uneasy about the lack of legislative progress regarding a US Bitcoin Strategic Reserve, which many believe could stabilize Bitcoin’s role in the financial landscape. The current hesitation is evident in the options market, where the delta skew for Bitcoin options has risen to 15%, indicating a significant premium on put options compared to calls. This divergence suggests a reluctance among major traders to trust that $66,000 will hold.
The recent expiration of Bitcoin options left a significant number of call options worthless, reflecting a prevailing bearish outlook. With 97% of call options expiring uselessly, traders are exhibiting an unwillingness to maintain positions as they tread carefully over the weekend, anticipating potential geopolitical shifts that could impact the market.
Market analysts have noted that the current climate of fear and uncertainty could shift if no major geopolitical events occur in the days ahead. While the prospects for Bitcoin appear dim in the short term, traders remain vigilant, recognizing that market dynamics can change rapidly, especially in the face of new developments.
In conclusion, as the market navigates through these turbulent waters marked by economic and political uncertainties, the odds of Bitcoin remaining below the $66,000 mark by April 24 seem to be growing. Traders are advised to proceed with caution, recognizing the inherent risks of this volatile market.
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