Current Bitcoin Miner Supply Indicates Stability, Not Crisis
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Recent analyses suggest that while Bitcoin miners are experiencing tighter supply conditions compared to previous market cycles, this situation does not yet signify a critical supply shock. Axel Adler Jr.’s latest Bitcoin Morning Brief provides insights that reveal miners still possess a considerable reserve of Bitcoin, particularly in over-the-counter (OTC) markets, despite ongoing selling pressures directed at exchanges.
Adler’s findings revolve around two interconnected metrics. The first metric examines the 30-day moving average of Bitcoin flows from miners to exchanges, which serves as an indicator of the selling pressure in the market. The second metric assesses the total Bitcoin held on OTC addresses affiliated with miners, giving insight into how much inventory is still available for trade outside traditional exchanges.
The data indicates that the market is capable of absorbing the current distribution from miners, which suggests that there isn’t a sudden depletion of concealed supply. Adler points out that the limited hidden OTC overhang contrasts with past cycles, yet the tactical pressure on the market has not been alleviated as of now.
This differentiation is significant. A lower OTC balance can be interpreted positively, signaling that miners have less reserved inventory for large-scale off-exchange trades. However, the fact that miners are persistently channeling their newly minted coins to exchanges at a high frequency implies that market pressures are still intact.
The inflow data to exchanges is critical to this analysis. Adler notes that after the fourth Bitcoin halving, miner inflows to exchanges noticeably increased when compared to the early period that followed the halving, continuing to accelerate into autumn 2025. By 2026, the 30-day moving average indicated a sustained high level of inflows, suggesting that a substantial portion of fresh supply remains directed into the market, with miner pressure still evident.
Though there has been a recent softening from peak levels, Adler does not interpret this as a definitive change in trend. He highlights that while there has been a local pullback, it doesn’t indicate a confirmed downward reversal, but rather a momentary pause within a still-high inflow environment. For a real reduction in miner pressure to be recognized, a notable and sustained decline in the 30-day moving average from its current elevated state would be necessary.
The picture presented by OTC balances is more complex. Currently, miner-linked OTC reserves stand at approximately 152.6K BTC, significantly lower than the all-time high of around 595K BTC recorded in 2018 and only slightly above the lows of around 146.9K BTC observed in July 2025. Long-term perspectives suggest that the OTC reserve is indeed compressed.
Nonetheless, Adler counters the narrative that this reserve is nearly depleted. He emphasizes that the existing level is near the lower historical limit, but asserting that the buffer is almost exhausted would be misleading, as over 150K BTC still represents a substantial amount. Moreover, he notes that the OTC balance has been fluctuating within a narrow range and even experienced a spike upward in February. This situation indicates a stable yet low reserve rather than an imminent depletion.
The key takeaway from Adler’s report is that while the current supply of Bitcoin from miners is tighter than in prior cycles, it has not yet reached a critical point of scarcity. Miners indeed have less OTC inventory compared to earlier phases, yet the reserve remains significant enough to prevent a major market disruption.
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