Experts Predict High Volatility for Bitcoin This Week
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This week may be particularly turbulent for Bitcoin, with noteworthy developments anticipated. Currently, the cryptocurrency is trading just above the recently crossed $74,000 threshold, hinting at a potential return to levels not observed since late last year. Virtual Bacon, a noted market analyst, has indicated that this could be the most volatile week for Bitcoin throughout 2026.
Despite the current upward trend in Bitcoin’s price being a positive sign, the expert highlighted that several hurdles still lie ahead. In a discussion on social media, he pointed out the crucial technical indicators that could shape Bitcoin’s trajectory. The 200-day simple moving average stands at $93,000, while the 50-week average is around $98,000. The last resistance point, identified at $94,000, creates a significant area of resistance between $93,000 and $98,000.
According to Virtual Bacon, there exists a 15% risk of a downturn to support levels close to the low $60,000 range, juxtaposed against a 30% potential for an upward surge. He remarked that the likelihood of a price rejection back into the previous trading range seems higher than that of a breakout leading to a bull market. The analyst clearly stated that his observations are based on data rather than a bearish outlook, reaffirming that the market remains in a downturn until Bitcoin solidly surpasses the resistance of $94,000 to $98,000.
The anticipated volatility this week stems from several key events. Notably, the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting scheduled for March 18-19 is a significant factor. The consensus suggests there is a 99.1% chance that interest rates will remain unchanged. Nonetheless, Virtual Bacon underscored the potential for remarks from the Federal Reserve Chair, particularly those hinting at a hawkish tone due to oil-driven inflation, which could instigate a substantial market sell-off.
In addition, this week sees the expiration of quarterly Bitcoin options on the same day, which could exacerbate market fluctuations. Current data reveals substantial open interest clustered in the $74,000 to $75,000 range, indicating that Bitcoin’s price might remain stable around this level until the expiry.
If Bitcoin can surpass the $75,000 mark, there is optimism for a rally toward $80,000. Conversely, should it fall below $70,000, there could be an intensified downtrend.
Geopolitical tensions, particularly surrounding oil prices, add another layer of complexity to the market landscape. The analyst cautioned that if oil prices approach $120, compounded with FOMC decisions and the options expiration, Bitcoin might be poised for significant market turbulence.
Virtual Bacon articulated two primary scenarios to monitor as the week progresses. The first scenario involves a breakout where Bitcoin sustains above $75,000 through the anticipated volatility. He believes this could lead to a movement towards $80,000 and foster renewed bullish sentiment, aiming for critical resistance levels of $94,000 to $98,000 in the forthcoming quarter.
Conversely, should Bitcoin encounter resistance at $75,000, a quick drop back into the $63,000 to $70,000 range could follow after the options expiry. The analyst warned that such a decline might coincide with broader market downturns, including the S&P 500 potentially dipping below its 200-day moving average, alongside rising oil prices, which could push Bitcoin into a more extended bear market, with possible price drops to as low as $58,000 or even $43,000.
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Elena Rodriguez
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