Key Indicator Approaches Bitcoin Cycle Bottom Again
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A Senior Altcoin Analyst, Sarah combines on-chain data with a background in venture capital research. With a Master’s in Computer Science, she provides precise evaluations…
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For over ten years, a specific on-chain metric has demonstrated a remarkable ability to signal every major Bitcoin bottom. Currently, this indicator is on the verge of reaching a significant threshold once more.
This analysis hinges on the monthly Bitcoin chart in conjunction with the Net Unrealized Profit/Loss (NUPL) metric, which assesses whether the average investor is experiencing unrealized profits or losses. Historical trends reveal that during the last three major bear markets, this indicator has consistently dipped into a particular range, aligning with a rising trendline.
As Bitcoin recently climbed back over $70,000 and entered the mid-$70,000s, a sense of optimism has begun to emerge within the market. The fear and greed index has shown signs of recovery; however, one critical question lingers: has the market already hit its lowest point, or is there still potential for further declines? A long-term examination of the NUPL suggests that insights gleaned from previous market cycles may provide clarity.
NUPL serves as a straightforward sentiment indicator in Bitcoin’s landscape, focusing solely on whether the average holder is in profit or loss. High readings indicate substantial unrealized gains, while sharp declines suggest that profits have dissipated and losses are dominant.
The monthly candlestick analysis consistently illustrates that major market lows for Bitcoin have occurred when NUPL enters deep territory, touching a long-term ascending support line. This pattern was observed at the cycle bottom in 2015, once more during the 2018 bear market low, and again around the 2022 downturn. Each of these instances coincided with significantly damaged market sentiment and a notable decline in Bitcoin’s value.
Presently, the NUPL value stands at 22.9, indicating that while the cryptocurrency is still experiencing moderate overall profit, it has lost a substantial amount of the gains that investors realized during the surge that peaked above $126,000 in October 2025.
Crypto analyst CrypFlow, active on the social media platform X, suggests that the NUPL metric is once again nearing the levels associated with Bitcoin’s past bottoms. This could imply that, if historical patterns hold true, the market might require a further reset in sentiment before it can establish a definitive long-term bottom.
While Bitcoin has already experienced significant corrections, the analysis indicates that the emotional turbulence observed at previous bottoms may not have fully played out. The NUPL may continue to decline, potentially reaching the trendline before confirming any bottom.
Although no single metric can accurately predict all market bottoms, the NUPL analysis implies that a final price crash could be on the horizon before the next expansive cycle begins. As it stands, Bitcoin is trading at $74,220, reflecting a 1.3% increase over the past 24 hours.
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