Bitcoin’s Bear Market: Analysts Warn of Deeper Declines Ahead
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The ongoing decline of Bitcoin from its record highs has created a climate of anxiety among investors, many of whom are left wondering if the steepest part of the downturn is behind them.
Analyst Jelle, active on social media platform X, has expressed concerns that the current discussions surrounding Bitcoin may overlook a harsh truth: bear markets often inflict more suffering than investors anticipate. He indicates that the existing price trends signal a more troubling outcome for Bitcoin’s latest retreat.
Bitcoin is presently around 44% lower than its peak of $126,080. Even as the cryptocurrency experienced a local low in February of about $63,000—a staggering 53% drop—it remains a relatively minor decline when compared to historical bear markets.
According to Jelle, previous downturns have resulted in significantly sharper declines. For instance, following the 2017 surge, Bitcoin’s value plummeted by roughly 84%, while the bear market after the 2021 rally saw a decline of about 77%. This historical context reveals that the current pullback is far from unprecedented.
In his analysis, Jelle shared a chart depicting Bitcoin’s fluctuating price movements since 2014, illustrating a consistent pattern of accumulation followed by steep declines. Each bull market has lasted between 150 to 152 weeks, contrasted with bear markets that typically endure from 52 to 58 weeks.
By extrapolating from the October 2025 all-time high, Jelle suggests the current bear market could extend until around October 2026, indicating that the worst may still lie ahead.
Furthermore, Jelle has evaluated Bitcoin’s relative strength index (RSI), which has historically offered insight into the nearing of market bottoms. He points out that previous bear markets have bottomed out when the weekly RSI dips below the 37 mark, often continuing to decline further after crossing this threshold.
Since the RSI fell below this level during the current cycle, Bitcoin has experienced a roughly 30% decline—less severe than previous cycles, yet still indicative of broader trends. Importantly, Jelle notes that a key signal of market recovery emerges when the RSI records a higher low, contrasting with either lower price lows or higher price lows.
This phenomenon creates a bullish divergence on the weekly chart, a sign that has historically anticipated the shift from a bear market to an accumulation phase. Until such patterns are evident, Jelle advises caution and patience for investors.
As the cryptocurrency landscape continues to shift, the message from analysts like Jelle serves as a reminder that vigilance is paramount, and the journey through bear markets can lead to unexpected terrain.
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Raj Patel
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