Arthur Hayes Sees HYPE Rising to $150 by August 2026
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Prominent crypto figure Arthur Hayes believes that Hyperliquid’s HYPE token is on a path to reach $150 by August 2026. In a detailed analysis, he suggests that even in a relatively stagnant crypto market, HYPE could experience significant growth. His reasoning draws from strategies commonly associated with exchange tokens but is tailored for an evolving landscape where decentralized perpetual markets are starting to dominate trading activities.
Hayes positions Hyperliquid as a leader in a sluggish market environment, highlighting that exchanges continue to generate fees irrespective of market fluctuations. He emphasizes Hyperliquid’s unique advantage, noting that a substantial portion, 97%, of its revenue is reinvested into purchasing HYPE on the market. He describes Hyperliquid as the primary revenue generator in the decentralized finance space that isn’t tied to stablecoins, pointing out that it offers greater returns to its token holders than any other crypto project.
His prediction indicates that HYPE needs to rise roughly fivefold from its current level of around $30. To achieve this ambitious target, Hayes believes Hyperliquid must enhance its 30-day annualized revenue to $1.4 billion, a figure it previously attained last August. He anticipates that the market will adjust the token’s valuation from approximately 12 times earnings to around 25.2 times, which remains competitive when compared to traditional exchanges.
Importantly, Hayes contends that Hyperliquid’s growth does not rely on a broad increase in crypto derivatives trading. Instead, it can expand its share by pulling users from centralized platforms. He calculates that a modest increase of nearly 4% in market share could propel Hyperliquid back to its previous revenue run rate.
A critical component of his argument centers around HIP-3, Hyperliquid’s framework for permissionless perpetual market listings. He notes that users who stake 500,000 HYPE can initiate new markets using the platform’s technology. Hayes reports that early traction in various assets, such as silver and major stock indices, has led to HIP-3 generating nearly 10% of Hyperliquid’s total revenue within just four months.
Moreover, he projects a 160% increase in HIP-3’s revenue over the next six months, while also hinting at HIP-4, which may introduce permissionless prediction markets, providing additional growth opportunities that could boost revenues even further.
When addressing potential competition, Hayes acknowledges the complexity of measuring actual market activity, as distorted figures might arise from manipulative practices in some decentralized exchanges. He favors using average daily volume to open interest (ADV-to-OI) as a more reliable indicator of genuine trading engagement. According to his analysis, Hyperliquid boasts the highest level of authentic trading volume among leading perpetual decentralized exchanges.
Additionally, he discusses the token supply concerns that had previously led to his bearish stance. He notes that the team had significantly reduced the distribution of tokens after an initial round of over 20% in late 2022, which should aid HYPE’s recovery.
Even in a conservative forecast, Hayes remains optimistic. He asserts that if the broader market values HYPE at a 12x earnings multiple while the token maintains a healthy revenue stream, its value could still rise to approximately $58, marking a considerable increase from current levels around $33.237.
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